Iowa Caucus

Did anyone win?

The politicos get ready for the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday. Is this the day that former president Donald Trump essentially ends the Republican primary with a victory? Or can former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley pull off the upset?

Yes, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is still running. (Update: DeSantis dropped out Sunday a few hours after I posted this column.) And so is Dallas pastor Ryan Binkley. But Trump-Haley is the showdown there. For months now, Haley seemed like the only real potential challenger to Trump (although, he is still a heavy favorite to win the nomination). We’ll see if anything that happens in New Hampshire changes the race.

This weekend, Haley capitalized on Trump’s bizarre speech where he confused Haley and former U.S. house speaker Nancy Pelosi as he tries to downplay any role that he had in his supporters attacking law enforcement on January 6, 2021 at the U.S. Capitol Building and trying to stop the certification of Trump’s defeat.

Here is what Trump said.

Here is Haley responding the next day.

Haley’s decision to bring up Trump’s confusing comments will elevate the question of his mental stability higher into the national media spotlight.

Meanwhile, I’m still trying to figure out what happened in Iowa last Monday during the caucuses and what it means. Did anyone win the Iowa Republican Caucuses?

Trump numbers. Slightly more Iowa Republican caucus goers supported Trump than those who showed up to support someone else. Yes, that gave Trump the “win.” But is it? 51% for a former president. Is that really a dominant showing in Iowa?

DeSantis disappointment. DeSantis had the support of Governor Kim Reynolds. He still lost by 30 points to Trump. And remember that DeSantis said that he would win the caucuses. Not even close. The caucus results showed that DeSantis failed to convince Iowa Republicans (especially evangelicals) that they should leave Trump and support him.

Almost Haley. It never seemed reasonable that Haley could win Iowa. She decided not to put in the time or resources into the state early enough to put together a winning campaign. To her credit, she built a following despite lacking the organization that Trump and DeSantis had.

Haley fell two points short of catching DeSantis on caucus night. Not awful but also not a surging showing that could build additional excitement as she moved forward to New Hampshire.

Downturn. Iowans did not turn out on caucus night. The weather was way too cold and there was still too much snow and ice on roads and sidewalks. That may have kept some people home. But I also wonder if the lopsided polls that showed Trump up big made some people who didn’t want Trump to win just stay home thinking there was no point in caucusing. Turnout dropped 40% compared to the contested caucus campaign in 2016.

I wrote this story for my Gray TV gig where I pointed out that 2016 had 16 candidates competing compared to 6 in 2024. That could have impacted turnout for the caucuses, too, perhaps. But it also seemed to me that some Iowa Republicans just expected Trump to win and they just weren’t as excited as they usually are for a caucus campaign cycle. The level of excitement didn’t feel as big as it did in 2016.

Here’s what I said on TV about my thoughts on the Iowa results and what they could mean for the future of the race.

Last one? I couldn’t help but feel a little sentimental as I prepared to leave “Caucus Central” Monday night at HyVee Hall in downtown Des Moines. This was my sixth caucus. Would this be my last?

Caucuses have lost their charm with most states. Primaries allow more people to participate by not forcing people to show up in person at a designated time like caucuses do. Bad weather, mobility challenges, work schedules, family responsibilities or confusion about how the process works may also not be as big a hinderance for primaries as they can be for caucuses.

Will Iowa Republicans still get to hold their contest first in 2028? About 110,000 Iowans caucused at the various 1,700 or so GOP caucus sites, according to the Republican Party of Iowa. There are 3.2 million people in the state. That isn’t high turnout.

Each caucus cycle has been unique. I’m thankful to have the opportunities to experience them. I may question whether anyone really won this one.

Dave Price’s Perspective is part of the Iowa Writers Collaborative, a group of independent journalists. Please check out the other writers.

Here’s the list.