Iowa Caucus expectations
Much different drama this time
It would be the biggest shocker in Iowa Caucus history if Donald Trump doesn’t win on Monday night and win big or “yuuge” as he might say. But I think the night will still be interesting for many reasons, even if they are different reasons than the other five caucus cycles that I’ve covered since I moved to Iowa.
(It wasn’t fun getting my vehicle out of this Cedar Rapids parking lot. But as I and a KCRG-TV colleague were digging it out with shovels, an incredibly nice guy in a bobcat plow came over and cleared a path.)
Can Trump have a dominant night? And what caucus total and margin of victory truly add up to dominance? The final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll before the caucuses shows us what to watch Monday night.
Donald Trump 48%
Nikki Haley 20%
Ron DeSantis 18%
Vivek Ramaswamy 8%
Asa Hutchinson 1%
Ryan Binkley 1%
Check out the full results here.
Trump’s campaign has been trying to lower expectations for his performance pointing out that the biggest margin of victory in modern caucus history is Bob Dole’s 13 point win in 1988. Dole wasn’t a former president running for his old job. That’s not a fitting comparison for Trump. Trump should be able to get 60 or 70%. Yes, I know that sounds outlandish. But, again, he’s a former president and the dominant voice in the party. Shouldn’t he overwhelm on caucus night?
Getting 50% still means that 50% wanted someone else. That may not scream dominance, even if he remains the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination again. The Iowa Poll shows his remarkable resilience to continue to attract first-time caucus goers.
Second place. It’s not often that we set a goal of second place, is it? But that’s what DeSantis and Haley essentially both have in mind. DeSantis has previously said that he would win the caucuses, a baffling prediction by a candidate to make since he is running against Trump. It’s usually left to the pundits and unnamed campaign staffers to make predictions like that. Perhaps, DeSantis tried to show strength.
But his prediction makes it more difficult for Tuesday, especially if DeSantis falls well behind Trump Monday night. How does he continue on to New Hampshire if he invested so heavily in Iowa and has little show for that effort? DeSantis has the endorsement of Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds (despite her saying previously that she wouldn’t endorse. Did Trump and Reynolds have a private conversation where Trump demanded too hard that she fall in line and endorse him?)
DeSantis also has the endorsement of the Family Leader CEO Bob Vander Plaats (who has endorsed the past three Iowa GOP Caucus winners), along with several dozen legislators. Those endorsements come with political organizations that could bolster DeSantis’s get out the vote efforts. But DeSantis, perhaps more than another other candidate, needs to strip away evangelicals who previously supported Trump. He has pointed out Trump’s failed promises (building a wall on the southern border, getting Mexico to pay for the wall, balancing the budget). But has DeSantis made a deep, moral argument that convinces enough Christian right conservatives to leave Trump for him? That’s a challenging task for sure as social conservatives have largely stuck behind Trump despite his behavior.
Will DeSantis also lose to Haley and finish third? She has been on the rise, although 20% in the Iowa Poll is far from surging. The support that Haley gets from Independents and Democrats in the poll shows why she could be the party’s best general election candidate versus Joe Biden.
However, the poll also shows lesser enthusiasm for her by Republicans compared to Trump and DeSantis. Does that mean her supporters are less inclined to show up Monday night? Or will their anti-Trump determination make the difference?
Haley has demonstrated the potential for growth in this process. However, she didn’t invest in the campaign infrastructure that Trump and DeSantis have. Instead, she largely relies on ground game efforts by one of her most valuable endorsements, Americans for Prosperity. Can they make up enough ground in the campaign’s final weeks to help her find a Rick Santorum-like surge in the campaign’s final weekend? That is difficult to duplicate.
3. And the rest. Ramaswamy has held more events than all other candidates. And it’s not even close. He has promised that the media, polls and pundits are all missing what he is building and that he will bring so many new people to the caucus process, that he will shock everyone on caucus night. For him to finish anywhere but fourth will surprise many. He has positioned himself as a younger version of Trump and Trump’s savior when forces will make sure Trump doesn’t get the nomination. Trump apparently had enough of it on Saturday and labeled Ramaswamy a fraud.
Hutchinson and Binkley have campaigned until the end. They both want to at least beat Ramaswamy. But they each have just 1% in that Iowa Poll. So finishing higher than fifth would require a significant charge up at the end.
4. The weather. The awful, bone-chilling, soul-crushing, potentially record-breaking cold weather. It’s the reason that I’m writing this column from a hotel in Cedar Rapids (where I will spend my third night), instead of from my house in Urbandale. I appreciate the enthusiasm of the candidates, their staffs and Republican Party leaders across the state sharing warm thoughts that Iowans will endure temperatures that feel far below zero Monday night. Call me skeptical. If you’re leery of slipping on the ice, sliding your vehicle off the road or just freezing you a$% off walking from the car to the door on Monday night, you may think twice about venturing out. Hard to envision this terrible weather doesn’t chill turnout some (Not to mention some people who may question whether they should both if Trump will win anyhow.)
Will Monday night still have some drama? It won’t be the same as when Barack Obama (and John Edwards) beat Hillary Clinton in 2008. There is no Obama in this race. There is a Trump. And he is no Clinton.
Note: Some of you have asked about my plans for Caucus night. I will be anchoring live coverage for Gray TV’s Iowa stations from “Caucus Central” in downtown Des Moines. You can watch that live on kcrg.com, ktiv.com and kwqc.com.
Thanks for reading.
Dave Price’s Perspective is part of the Iowa Writers Collaborative, a group of independent journalists. Please check out the other writers.
👍Weathers will be the wildcard!