The biggest piece of caucus pie
I figured that a pie analogy would be fitting as too many of us indulge with that extra piece that we really didn’t need over this Thanksgiving break. I love pie.
Thanksgiving also marks an unofficial transition in the campaigning before the January Iowa Caucuses.
It’s my experience that Iowans who are interested in the caucus process dial in a little more when Thanksgiving arrives. Maybe it’s from having some time off work and catching up. Maybe it’s from having conversations (or trying to avoid political conversations) with relatives over the holiday. Or maybe it’s just the simple math that decision time is just two months away (sometimes it’s three if the caucuses are held in February).
Regardless, how much of the caucus pie do the Republican candidates need to get? Donald Trump is the favorite to win. And he should be. By a lot. He is the former president of the United States (so he is almost an unofficial “incumbent” in this primary race). He has a rabid bunch of devotees who travel the country —many in costumes or MAGA gear — wherever he speaks, believing whatever he says. So far, no Republican presidential challenger comes anywhere close to Trump in any poll.
Trump should get 50%, at least, of the total when Iowa’s Republican Caucuses take place on January 15th, 2024. Perhaps, 60-65% should be expected. Again, he is the former president. He has skipped the presidential debates and said that the other candidates should drop out. The former president should be able to dominate on caucus night. Anything below 50% for him on caucus night could invite speculation about whether he really has the strength and standing in the party that his followers maintain that he does.
What about the others? Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has picked up some big endorsements over the past two weeks: Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds (who previously said that she wasn’t going to endorse anyone) and Bob Vander Plaats, the president and CEO of the Family Leader, the social conservative organization with a good amount of political clout among Republicans. Vander Plaats, by the way, has endorsed the past three Iowa GOP Caucus winners: former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee in 2008, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum in 2012 and Texas Senator Ted Cruz in 2016 (although, none went on to earn the party’s nomination).
DeSantis also has endorsements from about 40 Iowa legislative Republicans, along with dozens of faith leaders. But can he turn those endorsements into a surge? He needs it. DeSantis is 25-30% behind Trump in the statewide polls. Next week he will visit his 99th Iowa county, the so-called “full Grassley,” named in honor of Senator Chuck Grassley’s commitment to travel to all the state’s counties every year.
DeSantis probably doesn’t need to win the Iowa Caucuses for his presidential campaign to continue. But he likely needs to finish a close second to Trump. How close? Within 10 or 12 points? He must beat Nikki Haley.
Haley, the former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, is doing better in the polls than DeSantis right now in New Hampshire (New Hampshire is the next contest after Iowa). If DeSantis finishes third in Iowa or finishes second but 20 or more points behind Trump? His campaign might not survive after going “all in” in Iowa over these next two months.
(Sidenote: I don’t really understand the “all in” political term. To me, if he is truly “all in,” that means that he is in Iowa every minute until caucus night. He still is the governor of Florida, so obviously that won’t happen. Perhaps, “all in” is not to be taken literally in political vernacular).
And what about Haley? She, too, wants to at least get second. She could knock DeSantis out of the race if Trump is first and she finishes in second. That’s where math gets tricky here. Polls show that Trump is the top choice for about 40ish% of Iowans. That means nearly 60% are leaning toward someone else. But those someone else’s are splitting that 60%. In theory, DeSantis and Haley could both get 25% and still not finish that close to Trump.
(Another sidenote: I’m surprised those figures aren’t in the national media reports more often: Nearly 60% of likely Iowa Republicans caucus goers are leaning toward someone besides Trump. That seems like a fairly high percentage versus the “pseudo-incumbent” Trump, doesn’t it?)
The pressure may not be as high on Haley to finish as close to Trump (assuming that he wins on caucus night) as DeSantis must do. Again, that’s because Haley may be better positioned to do well in New Hampshire. And her home state of South Carolina follows one month later (with Nevada going between those two states).
Haley doesn’t want to finish third in Iowa. She also doesn’t want to finish second and only get within 15 or 20 points of Trump. Haley needs the results to show that she is the true Trump alternative and she needs to make his campaign sweat with a closer-than-expected finish.
There are still some other candidates. But at this point, Doug Burgum, Vivek Ramaswamy, Asa Hutchinson, Ryan Binkley and David Stuckenberg are still looking up at the other three leading candidates. If polls are any indication right now, none of them will get much of a slice of the pie on caucus night.
I love pie.
Here is what else I’ve been doing this week:
Part one of my 1-on-1 interview with Ron DeSantis and his comments about Donald Trump today vs. the man who ran in 2015. Here’s the link.
Trump released a campaign video attacking Governor Kim Reynolds. Here’s my story on what he said and how she responded.
I talked 1-on-1 with Bob Vander Plaats about why he endorsed DeSantis and what happens when Trump attacks him for it. Here’s that story.
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. I’m so thankful for your support, for those of you who have become paid subscribers, for those of you who share the column with others and for those who send me comments (where you agree or disagree) with what we discuss each week. I really appreciate it!
Here are a few happenings you might want to consider:
All paid subscribers to one or more Iowa Writers Collaborative blogs are welcome to join us on December 7th for a gathering in Des Moines. So please consider becoming a paid subscriber! Then RSVP for our holiday event. Hope to see you all there!
Save the date! On Friday, November 24 at noon, paid subscribers to any member of the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative are welcome to join a Zoom call with Ellen Won Steil, author of her debut suspense novel “Fortune,” published by the Amazon imprint Lake Union Publishing.
“In this explosive novel about a decades-old mystery, shocking revelations of the past and the secrets of three women will be spilled when a small Midwest town announces a DNA Lottery.”
FORTUNE is an Amazon Editors’ pick for Best Mystery, Thriller & Suspense
Amazon First Reads September pick, hitting #4 in the entire Kindle Store:
And #1 Best Seller in five categories:
#1 Best Seller in Mysteries
#1 Best Seller in Women’s Domestic Life Fiction
#1 Best Seller in Women’s Divorce Fiction
#1 Best Seller in Mothers & Children Fiction
#1 Best Seller in Small Town & Rural Fiction
Ellen Won Steil grew up in Iowa in a Korean American family. She earned her BA in journalism from Drake University and a law degree from William Mitchell College of Law. She lives in Minnesota with her husband and two young sons. She believes most good stories have at least a hint of darkness in them. For more information, visit www.ewsteil.com.