What we learned for the future from 13 candidates on 1 stage
Twelve Republicans got ten minutes each Friday night to convince 1,200 Iowa activists (plus countless others who read, listened or viewed from elsewhere) that Donald Trump should not be the party’s nominee for a third time. Most of those candidates failed to take him on directly (again) and the two who did, heard the punishment from the crowd at the Republican Party of Iowa’s Lincoln Day Dinner.
Here’s some perspective: It’s Trump’s nomination to lose. Still.
There are things that I’ll now watch in the weeks to come based on what I heard and did not hear Friday night.
Take on Trump and you may feel the wrath. Former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson reminded the audience that Trump faces criminal charges (and more possibly to come). “We need a new direction for America and for the GOP,” Hutchinson said.
Some in the crowd grumbled. (Other note: Hutchinson was the only candidate who spoke more than ten minutes and got his microphone cut off as party officials warned could happen to anyone who failed to follow the time limit).
The crowd did much more than grumble when former Texas congressman Will Hurd spoke. “The reason Donald Trump lost in 2020…he failed to grow the GOP brand,” Hurd said as some in the crowd hissed.
But then he got to the part that really made some noise. “Donald Trump is not running for president to make America great again. Donald Trump is running to stay out of prison (loud boos followed). I know, I know, I know… the truth is hard. But if we nominate Donald Trump, we are giving Joe Biden another four years in the White House.”
I can’t remember ever hearing so many boos from an audience directed at one of the featured guests at a political event. Ever. Those boos were loud and they lasted a while. It was so unusual.
Some of what Hurd said was part of what some Iowa activists have said to me. They know that Trump has a lot of baggage, criminal investigations, constant controversy, losing the Republican majority in the U.S. house in 2018 during his administration, losing the White House and senate in 2020 and failing to lead a “red wave” comeback in the 2022 elections. They fear that if Trump is the nominee again, he will lose again.
(Note: National polls show that a Biden vs. Trump race is competitive).
But Hurd made those concerns public…VERY public. And many of the Iowa Republicans in the room who heard those concerns made it known that they didn’t want to listen.
Other than former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, most of the candidates don’t criticize Trump much, even though they supposedly want to defeat him. When reporters ask about the criminal charges against Trump, candidates deflect with an allegation of how the Biden administration has “weaponized” the U.S. Department of Justice. It won’t matter if there is an official or judge involved that Trump appointed or if it’s a state-led investigation of Trump. Biden is the problem, they say, not Trump.
In the weeks and months ahead, I’ll be curious how the candidates talk about the investigations against Trump. Will any listen to what Hurd say and feel more emboldened to offer a sharper contrast with the former president? Will they point to all the investigations and say it’s time for someone else (even if they won’t say it as bluntly as Hurd did)? Will they have the guts to make those points (directly, not subtly) in these multi-candidate gatherings?
Or will that room of boos remind them that Trump remains his party’s favorite to become the nominee once again and those who dare cross him will feel the wrath….both his and those who may likely support him once again?
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Other thoughts after the dinner: For all the speculation about Trump not adhering to the limit of ten minutes for his speech…and whether the timekeeper would dare cut off his microphone once he hit that limit? It didn’t matter. Trump paused before he walked up on the stage. He paused again once he got on the stage. He paused yet again before he got into his speech. And then he wrapped up his remarks early and stood at the podium while the audience applauded. Ten minutes proved to be enough time for him.
No presidential candidate got more applause from the crowd than Trump (Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Ohio entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy likely had the most compared to all other Trump challengers). The entire audience, however, did not all stand as Trump took the stage or when he left. But Trump had the most visible, audible support in the room (anecdotally based on crowd reaction).
When Trump name-called DeSantis as “DeSanctus” several times, the audience didn’t have a huge reaction either way (some laughs, no boos, not widespread applause).
Trump is much different when he speed reads a speech, as he did. Not the same energy as when he riffs.
Timing. Organizers played “Only in America,” a former number one country song in 2001 by Brooks & Dunn, as each candidate walked onto and walked off the stage. (The song is a frequent choice at Republican events in Iowa). I believe that they just paused and re-started the music for each candidate throughout the evening. As Trump walked up, an interesting part of the song played. The lyrics continued to this part of the song: “One could end up going to prison, one just might be president.” Was that intentional? I can’t imagine that it was. The song lyrics are what they are. Although, some Trump supporters were less than thrilled.
That music conspiracy theory moment was a blip in the evening overall. The dinner stayed on time and continued to flow throughout the night. A night organized to let 13 presidential candidates give a speech to a big crowd? That had all the makings of a dinner that could turn into breakfast. But organizers kept it moving all night and the audience out of there by about 8:30 p.m. Pretty remarkable when you think about it.
DeSantis continues to focus on what he’s done in Florida (also not calling Iowa’s Governor Kim Reynolds “the best governor in the country” as some others have done during trips here.) “Woke,” “indoctrination,” “the radical left” and “freedom” are frequent words for him as he whoops up the Republican right base.
South Carolina Senator Tim Scott’s strength as a speaker seems to be when he moves around the stage and also when he does extended question and answer gatherings with the audience (like he did Thursday night before 200+ in Ankeny). He doesn’t get the same kind of audience reaction when he stands at the podium (from what I’ve seen so far).
Ramaswamy seems to intrigue the audience as he presents himself as a younger generation candidate, rips the “Deep State,” and the “managerial class.” He doesn’t yet lay out direct arguments for why caucus goers should support him and not Trump.
Former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley of South Carolina talks about not being afraid to lay out the “hard truths.” And I’ve talked to longtime GOP caucus goers who are intrigued with her potential (along with Scott). But other than making a generational argument implying that Trump and Biden are too old (along with her call that politicians over the age of 75 should get “mental competency tests”) she doesn’t yet (similar to the aforementioned other candidates) really try to lay out why she should get the nomination rather than the former president.
Former vice president Mike Pence began his speech with an unfortunate slip of the tongue as he referred to Iowa’s presidential contest as a “primary.” He caught himself. And clearly, he knows what Iowa’s format is. But it got his remarks off to a challenging start. He already is in a tough position. He refrains from ripping Trump, his former boss and now caucus competitor. But Trump supporters don’t seem too fond of him since he refused to follow Trump’s directive to help disregard the 2020 election results. It’s a challenging spot for him to be in and find a way to be a serious challenger.
No candidate watched more people leave the room as much as Michigan businessman Perry Johnson. Several dozen used the ten minutes to get a drink or relieve themselves of a previous one. Hurd also saw people leave as he got introduced. Not as many left when North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum took the podium. Burgum did get some laughs (some uncomfortable?) when he talked about one of his home state’s college teams (North Dakota State) defeating both the Iowa State Cyclones (2014) and Iowa Hawkeyes (2016) in football games over the past decade. That’s one way to make the crowd pay attention to one of the newest presidential candidates.
Miami Mayor Frances Suarez and Dallas pastor Ryan Binkley both used the night to introduce themselves to the crowd, as both are not well-known in the state. Commentator Larry Elder of California also spoke. But other than pushing his focus on getting more absent fathers involved their children’s lives, he doesn’t seem to be doing much to show that he wants to be a serious candidate in the race.
Dave Price’s Perspective is part of the Iowa Writers Collaborative, a group of independent writers who share unique voices on what’s happening in our communities. Check out the other members.