Why Scott Brennan has hope
Although, it's not always easy
The 2020 Iowa Democratic Caucuses were a mess (stop smirking, Tom Perez). Joe Biden wasn’t competitive in Iowa (Donald Trump beat him by nearly 11%). State Auditor Rob Sand has become his party’s new “Ol’ Lonely.” (last remaining statewide elected official or Iowa member of Congress).
But, wait: there’s more. Zach Wahls — the Coralville legislator some activists hoped was a rising star in the party — got his comeuppance as senate minority leader when he tried to fire two longtime state senate staffers without the support of his caucus (yet another headache for a party that holds just 16 of the 50 senate seats. Wahls is no longer minority leader).
No, those aforementioned incidents are not why Brennan is a hopeful man. It wasn’t this either: Brennan had just spent most of his Friday indoors in Minneapolis when the weather was sunny and 76 degrees.
Brennan’s hope actually followed the news that the Democratic National Committee’s Rules & Bylaws Committee (RBC) decided that the Iowa Democratic Party’s revamped (Hail Mary) proposal for the 2024 presidential caucuses was….”non-compliant.”
“You always have hope, Dave,” Brennan told me
Again, the ruling was “non-compliant,” not “compliant.” In other words, the RBC didn’t believe the plan followed the rules.
“We knew that would be the case all along,” Brennan explained.
Brennan, a Des Moines attorney and former state party chair, serves as the party’s DNC representative. He has spent hundreds of hours talking, revising and strategizing formats for the upcoming caucuses.
Publicly, not much promising news has been apparent in this effort to keep Iowa Democrats’ first-in-the-nation. Here’s a quick recap:
The RBC took away Iowa Democrats’ revered first-in-the-nation status, which they’ve held since 1972.
The RBC didn’t include Iowa Democrats in the list of early state contests (those that can hold their caucus/primary before Super Tuesday in March).
The IDP offered a revised plan for its caucuses (primary lite?) Participants would make their presidential candidate choice through a mail-in process, rather than in-person as is tradition. “Caucus night” would take place at a later date (Democrats would like to hold it the same night at the Republican Party of Iowa’s caucuses) and host the party business stuff that typically gets very little media attention (not nearly as sexy as which presidential candidate beat/failed expectations).
The IDP State Central Committee approved the new caucus plan. Governor Kim Reynolds and the Republican-led legislature passed a law that would require in-person caucusing.
Somewhere along the way, the usual cordial relationship between the Republican (Jeff Kaufmann) and Democratic (Rita Hart) state party chairs went awry.
O.K., now back to Scott Brennan and what happened Friday. The RBC ruled that Iowa Democrats were (still) “non-compliant” in their new caucus plan. That’s because the party continues to refuse to provide a date when it would host those 2024 caucuses. That’s been the case for months now. Democrats don’t want to be tied to a date…yet. They want maximum flexibility for later.
Hope.
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The RBC already decided South Carolina would replace Iowa in 2024 in hosting the first presidential contest (Joe Biden’s thank you to Rep. Jim Clyburn for endorsing him in 2020, potentially saving what had been an underachieving presidential campaign for the former vice president). Obviously, that wasn’t what Iowa Democrats wanted, since they wished to remain first.
But here’s where this gets more unsettled and possibly promising for Iowa Democrats. New Hampshire traditionally hosts the first presidential primary (which historically takes place the week after the Iowa Caucuses). But under a new calendar schedule, the RBC decided to have New Hampshire and Nevada (which switched back to a primary system) hold their contests on the same day for 2024.
New Hampshire Democrats (where former IDP chair Troy Price now serves as that state party’s executive director) were steamed. They don’t want to essentially be tied for second in the process. And they most certainly don’t want another state’s primary (South Carolina) to go before theirs. New Hampshire Dems says their state law won’t allow that.
Hope.
Then there’s Georgia. The RBC selected Georgia to go fourth in 2024. Georgia’s Republican secretary of state is fine with letting Republicans and Democrats hold primaries on the same night. The Republican National Committee has other plans. At least so far.
Georgia’s problem…Brennan’s hopeful opening?
Brennan has said for months that while this process hasn’t been pretty (understatement), it’s also not finished. The RBC on Friday gave New Hampshire until September to come up with a plan to become compliant. But will anything really change? State law there is still state law.
The RBC didn’t offer more time to Georgia. Still could, perhaps. But didn’t during this meeting. No reason to give more time unless the RNC wants to change its calendar and move Georgia earlier (so it matches the date the DNC wants for Georgia)?
“The DNC calendar has big holes,” Brennan said.
So…Brennan can squint through that sunny Minneapolis afternoon and see a scenario where Iowa — largely by chaos elsewhere — could still end up as an early state host in 2024. A lot still has to happen.
Sure, it may not be likely. President Joe Biden pushed out Iowa already. Would he really change course and let the state move back up?
“I have hope because the calendar that was proposed…that was approved by the full DNC…can not hold,” Brennan told me.
Hope.
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You are off and running, Dave! Great information, well told.