Surprise, surprise, surprise.

But was Governor Kim Reynolds' retirement decision a surprise?

Was I surprised that Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds is NOT running for re-election? It depends.

(Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds posted these pictures during the 2024 Republican National Convention.)

It depends when you asked me.

The Diagnosis

If you asked me after she disclosed in 2023 that her husband, Kevin, was battling lung cancer, I would not have been surprised if she said that she would not run again.

Kevin has non-small cell lung cancer. Depending on the severity and spread of the cancer, many people can live for years. My dad was not as fortunate. He died about two years after his initial diagnosis. Dad had been a heavy smoker. Kevin told me that he had not.

We pray that Kevin can continue to win his fight against his cancer.

The Endorsement

If you asked me after Governor Reynolds endorsed Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in November before the 2024 Iowa Republican Caucuses in January, I would not have been surprised if she decided not to run again.

Endorsing DeSantis was fascinating for two main reasons to me:

Iowa governors don’t usually endorse a presidential candidate before the caucuses and can say that this preserves a neutral environment for the field of candidates. Reynolds’ choice to break tradition showed how important she thought it was to publicly back someone besides Trump.

Choosing DeSantis — and doing it publicly — would open her up to Donald Trump’s fury. That is exactly what happened. Trump raged about the decision and said that her political career was over.

He also won the caucuses (and earned about half the total pledged support), despite Reynolds’ support of his chief rival.

The Aftermath

Reynolds pledged her support to Trump after his caucus win. I never heard her say that she would work to repair their relationship. But it seemed like she spent a year trying to do so.

—All this work made me assume that she wanted to make sure that Trump would not support another Republican in the 2026 gubernatorial primary

(Attorney General Brenna Bird? Bird supported Trump in the caucuses and has been a steadfast supporter of him since then. I can’t think of any time that she has publicly disagreed with Trump.)

—Reynolds defended Trump in nearly every instance that I can remember following the caucuses, especially after his criminal charges and convictions.

—She skipped election night in Iowa and instead attended Trump’s victory party at Mar-A-Lago instead.

—Reynolds traveled to Washington, D.C. several times and praised Trump for his actions during his second term and supported his cabinet choices.

If you would have asked me after any of those things, I would have said that Reynolds would run again.

The News Conference

If you would have asked me in February, I would have said she is DEFINITELY running again. During a news conference she said that she would run on her record. And when asked if she was announcing her re-election campaign that day, Reynolds responded, “stay tuned.”

Her comments that day left almost no doubt that she was gearing up for a 2026 campaign.

Friday

So, yes, I was surprised Friday when Reynolds announced that she would not run again. I assumed — wrongly — that the announcement would be a re-election announcement, not a retirement.

(This week’s “Inside Iowa Politics” looks at the surprise announcement and what it means. It’s 6 minutes and 40 seconds if you want to check it out.)

Reynolds cited commitment to family in her announcement video. Reynolds talks frequently about family…her husband, daughters, grandchildren, and her elderly parents.

Especially her grandchildren.

She and Kevin babysit them at Terrace Hill, and they often travel to watch their sports events. Several years ago, one of her grandsons played in the same baseball league as my son.

The Decision

I have heard people speculate on why she won’t run again: Iowa’s budget will be a mess in a few years because of declining tax revenue, hundreds of millions per year for private schools, and a slow-growing population.

Or they said that she knew Trump will never support her again and he would humiliate her by supporting someone else (again, Brenna Bird).

But I wonder if this decision to retire for Iowa’s governor, who turns 66 this August, is less about finances or winning back Trump and more about a priority that she has realized is the most important to her: family.

Perhaps, it is just as simple as that.

Most Likely Republican to run for governor (besides Williamsburg pastor Brad Sherman who already announced)

Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird.

Which Republican do you want to see run for governor? Which Democrat? Is it time for an Independent?

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